人工智能，显然已经成为百度和李彦宏演讲必提的话题了。伦敦时间9月8日下午，百度创始人李彦宏在“剑桥名家讲堂”再次分享了自己对于人工智能的看法。
谈及人工智能，李彦宏表示，其实人工智能并不是一个新概念，早在60年前就已经有人创造了人工智能这个词，但是直到过去10年，我们才意识到它的重要性。
“我们大体上经历了互联网的三幕。第一幕是PC互联网时代，称霸了大约15年，第二幕是所谓的移动互联网时代，增长周期只有四、五年。而现在，我们迎来了第三幕，即人工智能时代。每一幕都各具特色，因此，他们也有不同的迭代速度。”李彦宏说道。
李彦宏认为，这几幕的特色分别在于：
PC互联网时代高度依赖软件的快速反应，传统软件公司升级软件一般至少需要6个月，互联网公司则几乎可以不间断地升级软件;
大约五年前开始迈入移动互联网时代，这时软件升级已经不是优势，在孤立的APP中建立自己的生态才是移动互联网时代的制胜法宝，而这其实也是百度为何做O2O的重要原因之一;
在第三幕，人工智能的时代，声音和图片成为了更自然的表达方式，于是语音交互、图像识别成了更方便的服务方式。
李彦宏在演讲中举了很多案例，再次强调了语音识别、图像识别等人工智能技术在其搜索、金融业务上的应用。李彦宏称，现在语音识别的准确率非常高，百度的准确率能够达到了97%。
最后他表示，在人工智能时代，每个人都会受影响，不仅是IT公司，从制造业到金融，从教育到医疗，从旅游到物流等行业都将会面临转型和颠覆。
李彦宏在剑桥大学演讲实录：
就像艾萨克·牛顿、查尔斯·达尔文和斯蒂芬·霍金这些伟人对我的启发一样。当然对我启发最大的是徐志摩，“轻轻的我走了，就像我轻轻地来”。他的诗句广为流传，无论是在这里还是国内都为人熟知。我们都记得他在剑桥写下的诗篇。
不过这并不是今天的重点。重要的是，对我而言最具启发性的伟人是艾伦·图灵，因为他是现代计算机科学和人工智能之父。因此，剑桥是一所很特别的大学，我个人也很向往。大家知道，我曾在美国待了8年，先是在美国纽约州立大学布法罗分校攻读计算机科学硕士学位，随后又在华尔街和硅谷工作过。1999年，我回国创建了百度。
互联网的三幕变化
我认为，过去16年里，互联网发生了巨大改变。我们大体上经历了互联网的三幕。第一幕是PC互联网时代，称霸了大约15年，第二幕是所谓的移动互联网时代，增长周期只有四、五年。而现在，我们迎来了第三幕，即人工智能时代。每一幕都各具特色，因此，他们也有不同的迭代速度。
例如，我认为，PC互联网时代高度依赖软件的快速反应。对于我来说，我确实是在软件时代成长起来的。对于传统软件公司，升级软件一般至少需要6个月，有时甚至要一、两年。所以人们认为软件行业总是要花6个月的时间升级软件，但是互联网的到来极大地改变了这一切。
我们不需要像1997年那样为互联网公司工作，那时我在Infoseek搜索公司工作，我们开始意识到互联网公司与软件公司非常不同，特别是迭代效率这方面。
因为在互联网公司，我们几乎可以不间断地升级软件，每一天都能升级。一旦升级了代码和服务器，所有用户都能即时享受到这些服务。这点和传统软件公司很不同：他们需要发布软件包，6个月之后用户才能升级最新的版本。而互联网公司则不一样，你可以随时升级你的服务器和软件。
例如，百度每天多次升级我们的服务，这就是一种持续不断的升级。但是用户可能看不出来，因为搜索引擎本身看不出有什么变化，依然是每次在搜索栏输入问题后，就会显示答案。而回溯过去16年，我们可以每天多次进行升级软件，这就是不同于传统软件业的地方，而这也是为什么大多数的传统软件公司在互联网时代表现逊色的原因。这就是PC互联网时代。
建立生态是移动互联网时代的制胜法宝
大约5年前，我认为世界迈入了移动互联网时代，即我所说的互联网的第二幕。移动互联网时代不仅仅是不停地升级软件，事实上，这个时代的软件可能3个月、2个月或者1个月才升级一次，时间不固定，没有规律可言。所以，移动互联网的制胜法宝是什么?我认为是建立自己的生态系统。
但为什么在PC领域并非如此呢?因为在PC互联网时代，一切在国际市场上都是标准的：协议都是http，标记语言都是html。你只需要关注技术本身，其他的东西都已经准备好了。所有的网页都是开放的，你只需要链接网页就可以获得全部的内容。
但是移动时代就完全不一样了。大量的内容灌入到了大量的App中，然而我们并没有很好的答案。但是有一个好消息是，利用这些App，你可以做更多的事情，而不只是信息。网页的信息都是标准信息，但对于移动语言来说，你甚至可以在自己的手机上进行交易。为什么我们在PC和移动互联网有不同的行为呢?这是因为，尤其是对于百度这样的公司来说，我们要为人们的搜索需求和庞大的交易服务。
在PC时代，用户使用百度的产品来获得信息。但是在移动时代，用户的期待更多，自然我们需要做的也就更多。当用户输入搜索请求的时候，百度搜索更有竞争力，用户不仅可以搜索到某项服务的信息，还可以直接订购该项服务。不仅能查找服务信息，还能直接预定服务，免去了在App和搜索页面之间切换的麻烦。这与之前是不同的。如何才能实现这一点呢?这就要靠我们自己建立一个生态系统，因为并不是所有的App都能整合在一起。因此我们也花了好几年的时间来完成这些工作。
之前几年，我们试图将PC端的搜索功能转变成更适应移动时代的搜索服务。一开始我们只是改变搜索界面来使用变小的窗口、适应更慢的网络连接和更贵的上网费用。但这远远不够，需要做出的改变远不止这些。因此我们开始在垂直细分领域投资，比如教育、医疗、汽车、旅游、餐饮等许多重要的行业。所以不管用户想从我们这里得到什么，不管他们输入的关键词是什么，我们都能提供他们所要求的服务。同时，我们还试图与众多垂直领域的巨头建立合作关系，以此来为百度搜索的用户提供最佳、最流畅的搜索体验。
当然，不止是百度搜索，还有百度地图。现在在中国，你只要打开百度地图，就可以轻松预定酒店。你还可以在百度糯米上用折扣价格团购餐饮。事实上，我们在百度地图上推出预定酒店的功能时，一下子接到了好多订单，而其中大部分订单预定的都是当天的酒店。
这和传统的酒店预定有很大不同。以前，你会提前几天、甚至几个星期就在网上预定好了。但在移动网络时代，人们都是抵达目的地以后才打开百度的，因此他们要找的是附近的酒店。在百度地图上找到后，就下了当天的订单。
这是一个很大的改变。移动时代还会为我们，以及像我们这样的互联网公司带来更多的可能。所以，在过去的几年中，我们不仅推出了许多更适应移动时代的搜索App，还与许多垂直行业的领军企业合作，力求为用户带来最好的O2O体验。
消费者寻求的是服务，有些服务在线上就可以满足，而有些则需要在线下进行。我们提供的正是许多重要行业的线下服务。从这里大家可以看出来，我们已经不再依赖于标准的网络生态环境了，而是根据自身的需求建立新的生态环境。我们需要和垂直供应商保持良好的合作关系，需要确保用户可以通过我们的App顺畅地交易。
以上就是第二幕，是基于移动时代的互联网发展。
人工智能时代的开启
但是从今年开始，我们正在走进一个新的时代，拉开下一个帷幕。这就是基于人工智能的互联网时代。
同样，人工智能时代也不同于PC和移动时代。单从搜索键上你就能看到这一点。现在的搜索框中不仅有相机图标，有的搜索引擎在底部还有麦克风图标。这与之前的版本有很大区别。因为对于大众来说，用声音或相机来表达想法更加简单。有了这种需求，我们就应该去满足，关键全在于AI。
现在语音识别的准确率非常高，百度的准确率能够达到了97%。这97%意味着什么呢?意味着其精确度甚至超过了人对语音的识别能力。可以看出，如今语音识别技术已经相当成熟，足以被运用到许多领域、许多场景。其中最重要的场景之一就是搜索。
当我们从PC时代跨入移动时代时，大家逐渐意识到键盘并不是表达思想最自然的方式。我们这一代是用着笔记本电脑长大的，已经习惯了在键盘上敲字，可是智能手机问世时，键盘变成了屏幕上的虚拟键盘，触摸屏要肩负鼠标和键盘的多重功能。一开始，大家都觉得这个设计太蠢了，又慢又不精准。但当我看着孩子们用触摸屏时，一切又是那么的自然。这是因为相比于在传统键盘上输入，更加自然的表达方式是手指在触摸屏上的点击。
但移动时代之后，声音和图片成为了更自然的表达方式。毕竟人们都是先学说话后学会打字，因此若要表达思想，通过声音表达更加自然。之前机器没法辨认出语音信息，所以人们不得不使用键盘或触摸板输入想表达的信息;但是多亏人工智能，人们现在可以使用语音来传达信息。
此外，还有图像识别。如果你看到一株植物，但是不知道是什么植物时，那么拍一张照片，机器就会识别出其物种。这同样适用于人脸识别，当你看到一个人，不知道他是谁，拍一张照片，机器就能自动识别出来了。原因何在?答案依然是人工智能。人工智能技术非常有用，它不是一个新概念，早在60年前就已经有人创造了“人工智能”这个词，但是直到过去10年，我们才意识到人工智能的重要性，主要是因为今日的计算能力更为廉价和强大。而且，和过去相比较，我们也已经拥有了更多的数据。
拥有大数据和廉价计算能力的人工智能技术，现在就出现在人们的生活之中。百度在过去的五、六年间，在人工智能技术方面投入很多，尤其是在深度学习方面。
百度人工智能技术如何帮助百度工作?
在今年9月1日，我们举办了一年一度的百度世界大会，当时我们发布了百度大脑，它就是百度人工智能技术的引擎。百度大脑涉及百度最为核心的人工智能能力，具体包括语音能力、图像能力、自然语言处理能力和用户画像能力。
我已经提及了语音能力和图像能力，除此之外，自然语言处理能力也是非常重要的，因为人们在表达他们想法的时候，不仅要知道他们独特的的性格特点，还要知道他们到底需要什么，这背后就涉及自然语言处理技术。这是一个不同寻常的领域，所以我们又增加了用户画像，因为这也是很有用的，原因就是我们有很多大数据。
我们有许多用户的数据，例如行为数据、搜索的数据、地理位置信息等等，所以我们可以对用户有一个很好的理解，多亏这些，我们可以满足用户的需求。背后的人工智能技术是很重要的，提供了很大的帮助。我们除了可以增强现有的百度服务：搜索、地图、贴吧等，我们实际上可以给很多其他的开发人员提供很多的服务，这样可以利用我们在过去五、六年中的成果，帮助他们建立自己的优势。
例如，最近，我们的销售团队有些新的尝试。许多公司的销售平台的人员薪酬不高，导致人员流失率很高。所以公司总是需要培训新的销售人员，教他们销售技巧，以及如何与客户交谈。一般来说，最佳销售人员的业绩是新销售人员的十倍。过去很多公司只是总结一下最佳销售人员的销售技巧，然后让新员工背下来。所以新员工要花很多时间学习并使用这些技巧。
现在我们研发了一个新系统来帮助新销售人员学习，就是当他们打电话给潜在客户时，我们植入了一个语音识别引擎，当客户说话和询问时，系统会实时识别问题，并显示最佳销售人员通常会如何回答这个问题。这在以前是不可能的事，但是有了语音识别技术后，这就成为了可能。这样新销售人员不需要很长的训练期，他们可以做出和最佳销售一样的业绩。所以大家可以想象一下，未来语音识别将对于全球各个行业有什么样的影响。
除了语音识别，我们发现了其他新的可能。我们有自己的金融服务、互联网金融，可以根据图像识别技术识别人们的面孔。我们可以在几秒钟之内完成学生贷款的服务，因为我们可以识别身份证上的照片，并与该学生的身份进行匹配，这些都是因为我们有这样的技术能力。我们也把这个能力和广告系统做了结合，其中很大的一个领域就是教育。我们非常了解这些教育机构，了解他们的毕业生毕业之后的收入水平。
我们与这些教育机构合作，向潜在的学生发放学生贷款。教育机构很满意这样的合作，因为他们可以找到更多的学生，赚到更多的钱。学生也很满意，因为这意味着他们可以不用依靠自己的储蓄上学，而是可以选择贷款上学。我们也很有利，因为可以赚取贷款利息。这一切都得益于技术的发展，让我们可以评估所有学生和潜在学生的信用。还有自然语言理解能力，也是IT业内的一大趋势。
用户画像技术也将帮助到很多行业，比如营销。去年6月，传奇影业让我们帮助他们宣传在中国即将上映的电影《魔兽》。我们利用自身的用户挖掘技术，吸引更多人去观影。我们将用户分为三组，第一组是这部电影的忠诚粉丝，不需要任何的宣传也会去看。第二组是犹豫不决的用户。第三组是无论如何宣传都绝不会去看这部电影的人。
我们的工作是找到并识别这三组用户，并转化犹豫不决的用户们，促使他们去电影院看电影。我们通过用户画像，找出摇摆不定的用户组，进行营销。我们对于这种营销手段最初的预期是提高5%的收入，结果提高了超过200%。我们非常了解用户，知道他们是谁、喜欢什么、收入多少，通过进行这些分析，我们可以做很多事情。我们目前才刚刚开始这方面技术的探索，只和几家外部合作伙伴进行了尝试。一旦各个行业了解了语音、图像、自然语言理解、用户画像技术的作用，应用的可能性是无限的。
在人工智能时代，每个人都会受影响，不仅是IT公司，从制造业到金融，从教育到医疗，从旅游到物流等行业都将会面临转型和颠覆。我认为只要你做好准备，就能利用这些技术来提升自己的竞争力。在人工智能的时代，我们必须重新设想方方面面的可能性，重新设想我们的公司、行业、中国和世界的无限可能。
Robin: For me, the most inspiring great man is Alan Turing
September 12 News, London time on the afternoon of September 8, Baidu founder, chairman and CEO Robin Li in 'Cambridge Masters Forum' speech, and the scene of hundreds of students over the years he shared thoughts on Internet development, technological innovation, and topics such as artificial intelligence think. 'Cambridge masters Forum' is the most famous center of the debate at Cambridge University, dating back more than 200 years of history, Churchill, Reagan and other political and business celebrities have Gordon From this rostrum to communicate with young students.
Li said at the beginning of the speech, Newton, Darwin, Hawking, and Xu is he had a very profound impact, 'Cambridge,' while most of his inspiration, is the father of artificial intelligence - Alan Turing ( alan Turing). Li pointed out that China's Internet is open for the next act - AI Internet era, 'This is not a new concept, as early as 60 years ago, has already been created artificial intelligence of the word, but until the past 10 years, we realized the importance of artificial intelligence. 'in Li's eyes, with the computing power is getting cheaper, and more powerful, artificial intelligence era is roaring. scene, Li also to Baidu brain shows an example of artificial intelligence image recognition, floor foreground speech recognition, natural language understanding capabilities and user-portraits.Finally, Li also stressed the combination of all walks of life and artificial intelligence infinite possibilities, 'In the era of technology, everyone will be affected, not just IT companies, from manufacturing to finance, from tourism to logistics and other industries will face transformation and subversion. I think as long as you're ready, you can use these technologies to improve their competitiveness. '(King Kaka The following is Li in 'Cambridge Masters Forum' lecture Record:Honored by Cambridge and to share, I'm very excited. I have seen almost a full house here today.
But I came here just to do a presentation, I was inspired others to come, just like Isaac? Newton, Charles? Darwin and Stephen? Hawking these great inspiration to me the same. Of course, for me the biggest inspiration Xu is 'gently I go, as I gently come.' his muse widely circulated, either here or in the country are well known. we all remember that he wrote poems in Cambridge. but this is not the focus today. it is important for me is the most inspiring of the great Alan Turing, because he is the father of modern computer science and artificial intelligence. Thus, Cambridge is a very special University, I personally am looking forward to. you know, I worked in the United States for eight years, first master's degree in computer science at the State University of New York at Buffalo, and later worked on Wall Street and Silicon Valley. in 1999, I returned to created Baidu.
I think that, over the past 16 years, the Internet has undergone tremendous changes. In general, we experienced the Internet in three acts. The first act is the PC Internet era, dominate about 15 years, the second act is the so-called mobile Internet era, the growth cycle only four or five years. now, we ushered in the third act, that the era of artificial intelligence. each scene has its own character, so they have different speed of iteration.
For example, I think, PC Internet era is highly dependent on the rapid response of the software. For me, I really grew up in the age of software for traditional software companies, software upgrades generally require at least six months, sometimes even one or two years. so people always think that the software industry will take six months to upgrade the software, but the advent of the Internet has greatly changed all that. we do not like the Internet in 1997 as a company, I was working in the Infoseek search company we began to realize that Internet companies and software companies are very different, especially the iterative efficiency in this regard, because the Internet company, we can almost continuously upgrade the software every day can upgrade. Once the upgrade code and the server, all users . can immediately enjoy these services and this is very different from traditional software companies: they need to publish a package, users after six months to upgrade to the latest version of Internet companies is not the same, you can always upgrade your server and software. for example, Baidu several times a day to upgrade our services, this is a continuous upgrade, but users may not see, because the search engines themselves do not see any change, is still in the search field, enter each problem, the answer will be displayed. and back in the past 16 years, we can upgrade the software several times a day, which is different from the place of traditional software industry, which is why most of the traditional software company in the Internet age underperformed reasons. this is the PC Internet Age.
About 5 years ago, I think the world entered the era of mobile Internet, which I call the second act of the Internet mobile Internet era, not just software constantly upgrade, in fact, in this era of software may be three months, upgrade only two months or a month, the time is not fixed, there is no law at all. so, what is the holy grail of mobile Internet? I think it is to build their own ecosystem.
But why it is not the case in the field of PC because the PC Internet era, all in the international market are standard:?. Protocols are http, html markup language are you only need to focus on the technology itself, other things are ready a. All pages are open, you just need to link to the page you can get all the content.But the mobile era is completely different. Poured into a large amount of content to a large number of App, but we do not have a good answer. But there is a good news is that the use of these App, you can do more things without just information. information is standard information page, but moving language, you can even trade on their phones. Why do we have different behavior in the PC and mobile Internet? this is because, especially for Baidu such a company, we want to search for people and a huge demand for trading services.
In the PC era, users use Baidu products to obtain the information. But in the mobile era, users expect more, naturally we need to do it more. When the user enters a search request, Baidu search more competitive, the user can not only search for information to a service, you can also order the service directly. not only can find service information, but also direct scheduled service, which eliminates the trouble between App and search page switching. this is different from previous how to achieve this? it is up to build an ecosystem of our own, because not all of the App can be together, so we spent a good few years to complete these tasks.Before a few years, we have tried to transform the PC into the search function more adapted to the era of mobile search services. We are just beginning to change the search interface to use smaller window, adapt slower network connection fees and more expensive Internet access. But not enough to change the need to make much more than that. so we began to invest in the vertical segments, such as education, medical, automotive, tourism, catering and many other important industries. so whatever the user wants to get anything from us, regardless of What they entered the key word, we can provide the requested services. we also tried to establish a cooperative relationship with many vertical field of giants, in order to provide the best and smoothest user experience for search Baidu search .
Of course, not only is Baidu search, Baidu map there. Now in China, as long as you open Baidu map, you can easily book the hotel. You can also buy with discounts on dining Baidu rice. In fact, we launched on Baidu map the hotel features a predetermined time, suddenly received a lot of orders, most of which are predetermined order of the day the hotel. this traditional hotel reservation are very different.
Previously, a few days ahead of you, or even a few weeks in the book online as well. but in the mobile Internet era, people are to arrive after Baidu was open, so they're looking for nearby. Once you find on Baidu map, on the next day's orders. this is a big change. mobile era will be for us, as well as Internet companies like ours to bring more possible. so, in the past few years, we have not only introduced many more to adapt to the era of mobile search App also with many vertical industry leader, and we strive to provide users with the best O2O experience.
Consumers are looking for service, on some services online to meet, while others need to be online is carried out. It is an important service industry in many lines we offer. From here we can see, we no longer rely on the standard network ecological environment, but rather to create a new ecological environment according to their needs. we need vertical and suppliers to maintain good relations of cooperation, the need to ensure that users can smoothly deal with our App.
These are the second act, is based on the development of mobile Internet era, but starting this year, we are walking into a new era, opened under a curtain. This is the era of Internet-based artificial intelligence.
Similarly, AI is also different from the era of the PC and the mobile era. Just from the search button you will be able to see it. Now there is not only the camera icon in the search box, the search engine at the bottom there are some microphone icon. This is before the version is very different, because the public, with a voice to express ideas or camera easier. with this demand, we should go to meet, the whole key lies in AI. now speech recognition accuracy rate is very high, Baidu accuracy rate can reach 97% 97% What does this mean? mean an accuracy even more than the people of the voice recognition capability. it can be seen now speech recognition technology is already quite mature enough to be applied to many areas one of the most important scenes in which many scenes. is the search.
When we move into the era of the PC era, we come to realize that the keyboard is not the most natural way to express ideas. Our generation is growing up with the laptop, have become accustomed to the word on the keyboard, but the advent of smart phones when the keyboard into a virtual on-screen keyboard, touch screen to shoulder the multiple functions of the mouse and keyboard. at first, we all feel that this design is stupid, slow and not accurate. but when I watched the children with touch screen everything is so natural. this is because compared to the input on a conventional keyboard, a more natural way of expression is a finger on the touch screen clicks. but after the mobile era, sound and pictures became more natural expression. after all, people are the first to speak after school to learn typing, so to express ideas, expression through sound more natural. before the machine can not recognize the voice message, so people have to use the keyboard or the touch pad input to express the information, but thanks to artificial intelligence , people can now use your voice to convey information.